This research takes Oded Galor seriously! It analyzes the patterns and regularities of (Malthusian) stagnation and modern economic growth in (preindustrial) England using dynamic (general equilibrium) models. 

The first work I published as a part of this project is my doctoral dissertation itself. I then published a theory paper by building on the model I constructed in the dissertation. The dissertation and the paper were trying to formalize Joel Mokyr's arguments advanced in Gifts of Athena within a two-sector unified growth model. In 2020, I published a short paper demonstrating that both the Black Death and slow productivity growth are essential in understanding preindustrial prosperity in England. This 2020 paper substantiates the notion that understanding the very long-run growth patterns requires a model that features multiple growth regimes. 

As a part of this research, I also published a methodological essay on the relevance of the second-generation Schumpeterian models for the analysis of the first Industrial Revolution. 

In a 2023 paper published in the Journal of Population Economics, I focused on the dynamics of the Malthusian regime in England and identified its structural drivers. I also have an inactive working paper that studies some counterfactual experiments in British economic history by using a calibrated unified growth model that explicitly accounts for epidemics.

• Attar, M. A. (2023). Technology and Survival in Preindustrial England: A Malthusian View. Journal of Population Economics, 36(4), 2071-2110.

• Attar, M. A. (2021). Technology, Growth Theory, and the First Industrial Revolution. Ekonomi-tek, 10(1), 1-21.

• Attar, M. A. (2020). Productivity Growth, Malthus Delusion, and Unified Growth Theory. Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1112-1121.

• Attar, M. A. (2015). Entrepreneurship, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution. Economics, 9(1), 20150003.

• Attar, M. A. (inactive work in progress). Three Experiments in British Economic History: Evidence from a Unified Growth Model.

The initial motivation for this research in March 2008 originated from the Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's pronatalist views. To study the economic consequences of pronatalist rhetoric, I first wrote a paper that constructs an endogenous demography model for Türkiye. Using a rigorously-calibrated version of the model, I investigated the effects of exogenous and counterfactual upward shifts in fertility levels and demonstrated the adverse effects on GDP per capita and welfare in the medium run and in the long run. In 2016, after the announcement of a pronatalist program in Türkiye, I developed a simple continuous-time overlapping-generations model and showed that the baby bonus levels legislated in that program would not have any sizable effect on fertility. I also published a theory paper (in Turkish) that formalizes adverse welfare and growth effects of pronatalist population policies. In my most recent paper on Turkish pronatalism, I used the synthetic control method and demonstrated that the post-2008 pronatalism did not create any causal effect on actual fertility at the national level. In an ongoing research, I investigate whether the rhetoric created province-level effects on age-specific fertility rates. 

My work on economic demography includes a paper that estimates the structural form of a wealth accumulation model where age is a fundamental determinant of wealth. Also, I have an inactive working paper that studies the intergenerational transmission of fertility in the United States using micro data. In 2020, I wrote a short critical review (in Turkish) on population policies and social welfare. 

The Op-Ed articles I wrote on economic demography and Turkish pronatalism (in Turkish) appeared in İktisat ve Toplum and Yurt ve Dünya. 

• Attar, M. A. (work in progress) Political Alignment and the Heterogeneous Effects of the Pronatalist Rhetoric in Türkiye.

• Attar, M. A. (2024). The Post-2008 Pronatalist Rhetoric in Türkiye: There is No Robust Causal Effect on Actual Fertility! Turkish Journal of Population Studies, 46, 5-26. 

• Attar, M. A. (2020). Nüfus Politikalarının Refah ve Büyüme Maliyetleri: Genel Denge Çözümlemesine Dayalı Yeni Bulgular. Finans-Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 651(Mart), 9-44.

• Attar, M. A. (2020). Age and Wealth: An Analysis of Global Top Wealth Distribution. Turkish Journal of Population Studies, 42, 25-44.

• Attar, M. A. (2016). Doğurganlık Kararları, Akılcı Seçim ve Türkiye’de Nüfus Politikası. İçinde: Türkiye Dördüncü Nüfusbilim Konferansı Tebliği Metinleri Kitabı (pp. 1-20), Hacettepe Üniversitesi Nüfus Etütleri Enstitüsü, 2016.

• Attar, M. A. (2013). Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric. TEPAV, 2013.

• Attar, M. A. (inactive work in progress) Intergenerational Fertility Transmission in the United States: New Evidence from the General Social Survey.

The main objective of this research was to analyze the dynamics of growth and development in Türkiye using micro-founded endogenous technology and endogenous demography models. When I started studying growth and development patterns of the Turkish economy in early 2010s, the existing literature was particularly narrow in these respects. In the first paper of this project, published in METU Studies in Development in 2017, I used a second-generation Schumpeterian model with vertical and horizontal innovation channels and estimated some of its structural parameters using macro-level data. A year later, in a paper published in Boğaziçi Journal, I presented a comparative analysis of South Korea's and Türkiye's catching up experiences by extending a simple two-sector model with endogenous absorptive capacity. In the third paper of this research, published as a book chapter in a Routledge volume edited by Arzu Akkoyunlu-Wigley and Selim Çağatay, I constructed an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy with endogenous fertility, endogenous R&D, endogenous entrepreneurship, and endogenous human capital accumulation. In another paper that presents a critical analysis of the naïve neoclassical theory of capital, I revisited growth, distribution, and dynamic inefficiency patterns of the Turkish economy for the post-1923 era. I also wrote a book chapter (in Turkish) and studied the effectiveness of R&D expenditures in Türkiye using a very simple aggregate model. 

After the COVID-19 pandemic, I focused more on the political economy of Türkiye's growth and development patterns and how history did play a role in (partially) determining present-day economic and political outcomes through critical junctures. Hence, this research currently aims at exploring the fundamental causes of subnational comparative development in Türkiye, with a particular emphasis on political alignment, social cleavages, and electoral outcomes. 

I reviewed the historical evidence on Türkiye's long-run growth and distribution patterns in a recent book chapter. That work focuses on the characterization of structural reforms Türkiye needs as well as the related institutional and political barriers. In another recently published paper, I use individual-level data from the World Values Survey and European Values Study to investigate how education affects political values in Türkiye. In a paper in progress co-authored with Seda Başıhoş, we investigate how the first-nature geographical factors (location, topography, climate and biogeography) affect regional economic development. We use pixel-level raw data for geographical factors and several development proxies including nighttime luminosity. In another active working paper co-authored with Ayça Tekin-Koru, we study the 2023 Presidential Elections at the district level and demonstrate that the crises including the pandemic and the 2023 earthquakes did not signnificantly influence electoral outcomes.

My works on the long-run growth and development patterns of the Turkish economy also include a short article (in Turkish) published as a book chapter, a short review of Şevket Pamuk's Uneven Centuries, published in The Developing Economies, and various Op-Ed articles published in İktisat ve Toplum.

• Attar, M. A., & Başıhoş, S. (active work in progress). Geography and Economic Development: Subnational Evidence from Türkiye. 

• Attar, M. A., & Tekin-Koru, A. (working paper). Crises and Elections: District-Level Evidence from Turkey.

• Attar, M. A. (2025). Türkiye'de Uzun-Dönem Büyüme ve Yapısal Reformlar. İçinde: Ü. İzmen (Ed.) İkinci Yüzyıla Girerken Türkiye Ekonomisi (pp. 21-58). TÜRKONFED, 2025.

• Attar, M. A. (2025). Türkiye'de Eğitim ve Siyasi Kültür: Birey Düzeyinde Ekonometrik Bulgular. Eğitim Bilim Toplum, 23(89), 69-92. 

• Attar, M. A. (2021). Growth, Distribution and Dynamic Inefficiency in Turkey: An Analysis of the Naïve Neoclassical Theory of Capital. Structural Change & Economic Dynamics, 59, 20-30.

• Attar, M. A. (2021). Türkiye’de Teknolojik İlerleme, Beşeri Sermaye ve Yerli Üretim: Yenilikçiliğimiz, Taklitçiliğimiz, Geleceğimiz. İçinde: M. Tiryakioğlu (Ed.) Türkiye’nin Yerli Üretimi ve Politik Ekonomisi (pp. 233-240). İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2021.

• Attar, M. A. (2020). Türkiye’de Araştırma-Geliştirme Harcamalarının Etkililiği: 1990-2016 Dönemi için Model-Temelli Bulgular. İçinde: D. Güler Aydın, D. Başar Dikmen, & S. Öztürk (Eds.) Yeniliğin Ekonomi Politiği (pp. 187-210). Gazi Kitabevi, 2020

• Attar, M. A. (2020). Uneven Centuries: Economic Development of Turkey since 1820 by Şevket Pamuk, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2018, xvi + 352 pp. The Developing Economies, 58(1), 77-79.

• Attar, M. A. (2019). Long-Run Economic Growth in Turkey: Sources, Pitfalls, and Prospects. In: A. Akkoyunlu-Wigley, & S. Çağatay (Eds.) The Dynamics of Growth in Emerging Economies: The Case of Turkey (pp. 15-47). Routledge, 2019.

• Attar, M. A. (2018). Economic Development in Turkey and South Korea: A Comparative Analysis. Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 32(1), 1–28.

• Attar, M. A. (2017). Economic Growth and Technological Progress in Turkey: An Analysis of Schumpeterian Mechanisms. METU Studies in Development, 44(2), 129–154.

In the first paper of this project published in Economic Systems, we constructed a disease transmission model with an exogenous and unobserved/unobservable social distancing term. The purpose was to filter out latent social distancing using observed epidemiological data. Eventually, we were able to do that for a large number of countries with an algorithm that is robust against epidemiological underestimation. The project website includes data and codes as well as the MIDIS index that we recovered for 120 countries. 

In the second paper of this project published in Ekonomi-tek, we developed a numerical algorithm that directly deals with epidemiological underestimation. We again use a disease transmission model and estimate the daily headcount levels of infectious and deceased persons using a minimal set of reliable data moments. Though the algorithm can be applied to any country, we focus our attention on Türkiye where the government did not disclose the number of all confirmed COVID-19 cases for several months after the relaxation of mobility restrictions in June 2020. 

• Attar, M. A., & Tekin-Koru, A. (2025). Quantifying the Unseen: Epidemiological Underestimation Problem for COVID-19. Ekonomi-tek, 14(1), 35-67.

• Attar, M. A., & Tekin-Koru, A. (2022). Latent Social Distancing: Identification, Causes and Consequences. Economic Systems, 46(1), 100944.

In a project funded by Hacettepe University, I explored the determinants of the Distance to Frontier effects for a large number of countries using aggregate productivity data. I also have a work-in-progress on the South Korean miracle where I develop a novel approach to understand the micro-techno-economic foundations of productivity growth. 

Lisans öğrencisi olduğum yıllardan bu yana, iktisat yöntembilimi ve iktisat felsefesi ile de ilgilendim. Özellikle 2018 yılında İktisadi Düşünce Girişimi’ne katıldıktan sonra, iktisat yöntembilimi ve iktisat felsefesi üzerine birkaç makale yazdım. Bu çalışmalar, matematiksel biçimselcilik, büyüme-kalkınma kuramlarının tarihi, genel denge analizinin metodolojik sorunları ve genel denge iktisadının evrimsel epistemolojisi gibi çeşitli konulara odaklanıyor.

• Attar, M. A. (2023). Neoklasik İktisat. İçinde: Ö. F. Çolak (Ed.) İktisat Felsefesi (pp. 347-386). Efil Yayınevi, 2023. 

• Attar, M. A. (2021). Genel Denge Analizinin Metodolojik Sorunları: Bir Kuram Değerlendirme Denemesi. İçinde: D. Güler Aydın (Ed.) İktisat Metodolojisi (pp. 281-334). Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık, 2021.

• Attar, M. A. (2021). Genel Denge Analizinde Sıçramalar ve Süreklilik: Bir Evrimsel Epistemoloji Denemesi. Efil Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(4), 38-64.

• Attar, M. A. (2020). Büyüme-Gelişme Kuramları ve İktisadi Tarih: Yanılgı, Yakınsama, Arayış. İçinde: H. Özel, & D. Güler Aydın (Eds.) İktisat ve Tarih (pp. 75-117). Siyasal Kitabevi, 2020.

• Attar, M. A. (2011). Kuramdaki Biçimsellik ve Yöntembilimdeki Çoğulculuk. İçinde: H. Mıhcı (Ed.) İktisada Dokunmak: İbrahim Tanyeri’ye Armağan (pp. 121-150). Phoenix Yayınevi, 2011.

I was involved in various policy-oriented research projects commissioned by international and Turkish institutions/organizations. In these projects, I worked as a researcher and/or a team coordinator. 

In a project directed by Serdar Sayan and commissioned by COMCEC, we studied agricultural trade policies for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. In another project, again directed by Serdar Sayan and commissioned by COMCEC, we analyzed food security governance mechanisms in the OIC countries. 

I worked a researcher in a short-term project directed by Türkmen Göksel and funded by İzmir Development Agency (İZKA). That project determined the priority sectors to be supported to minimize the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the İzmir economy. I also worked as a researcher in a project funded by the Raoul Wallenberg Institute (RWI) and undertaken by Hacettepe University Social Policy Center (HÜSPAM) under the direction of Derya Güler Aydın. In that project, our team studied urban poverty in Ankara, by building upon Amartya Sen's capability approach with micro-level data. 

• Güler Aydın, D., Öztürk, S., Yeni, O., Attar, M. A., & Çakmak, İ. (2020). Ankara'da Kent Yoksulluğu. Raoul Wallenberg Institute, 2020.

• Sayan, S., Özkale, L., Temel, T., Attar, M. A., & Kaynak, P. (2020). Good Governance for Ensuring Food Security and Nutrition in the OIC Member Countries. COMCEC, 2020.

• Sayan,  S., Özkale, L., Akgüngör, S., Attar, M. A., & Taşöz Düşündere, A. (2019). Reviewing Agricultural Trade Policies to Promote Intra-OIC Agricultural Trade. COMCEC, 2019.